Calculator for the hydrogen transition: the Quick Scan for energy hubs
Hundreds of small and medium-sized industrial companies want to become more sustainable but are held back by grid congestion and a lack of insight into costs. A new digital tool, the Quick Scan Hydrogen Hub, can help get projects moving. Commissioned by RVO and TKI New Gas, Impact Hydrogen and Essent developed this instrument, which quickly shows whether a local hydrogen hub is feasible and what it will cost.
Across industrial parks throughout the Netherlands, the same conversations take place every day. A manufacturing company wants to move away from natural gas, but the waiting list for a new electricity grid connection runs until 2033 or later. A neighboring company has just installed solar panels across its entire roof. A transport company is considering converting its trucks to hydrogen. Everyone sees opportunities, but no one knows exactly what it costs, who supplies solar power and green hydrogen to whom, and who pays which part of the bill.
This situation prompted the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) to initiate the Quick Scan Hydrogen Hub. David Bolsman, with thirty years of experience in the energy, oil, gas, and chemical sectors and now working on sustainability at RVO, explains how the idea emerged. “Hydrogen projects were being explored in many places. Regional companies, often SMEs, struggle to become more sustainable due to grid congestion. We saw over two hundred initiatives across the country. We estimated that thirty to thirty-five actually had the potential to produce hydrogen by 2035. These companies often fell between the cracks. The OWE scheme (subsidy for hydrogen production with an electrolyzer, ed.) focuses only on the electrolyzer and mainly on larger projects. That may be less suitable for a hub with multiple SMEs.”
For many SMEs, hydrogen as a sustainability option is unfamiliar territory. Miray Küçük, working at RVO on hydrogen and industrial decarbonization, notes the strong demand for knowledge. “Entrepreneurs don’t know the price, the investments required, or what’s involved. And they don’t have a business development manager or a consultant they can hire. The Quick Scan fits into a broader step-by-step plan: first a quick exploration, then a permitting process, followed by a feasibility study with an engineering firm.”
From spreadsheet to dynamic model
The tool was built by Impact Hydrogen, a consultancy specializing in green hydrogen. CEO Nienke Homan and her colleague Agustina Ravotti initially started with a simple checklist. “We began with the question: is a hub suitable for hydrogen? But we ended up with something much more ambitious: a model that calculates the solution,” says Homan. “The Quick Scan doesn’t answer whether you should or shouldn’t do it. It provides insight into how to best design your hub and the financial consequences of each choice.”
The Scan works with seven tabs. Users enter information about their project: which companies are involved, their energy demand, what percentage of natural gas they want to replace with hydrogen, and what local energy generation looks like. Based on this data, the model calculates the required capacity of electricity grid connections, the size of the electrolyzer, storage capacity, and distribution infrastructure. It also takes into account by-products of electrolysis. Residual heat can be supplied to a district heating network, and oxygen to a water treatment facility.
Essent provided practical data for the model as a content expert. Teun Brand, project manager at Essent specializing in energy systems development, explains the philosophy behind the tool. “We tried to include as much as possible: not just the electrolyzer, but also storage and infrastructure. Suppose you have a customer who wants hydrogen-powered trucks. Then a refueling station costs money. Do you allocate those costs to other users in the hydrogen hub who don’t use hydrogen for mobility? And do you make the station publicly accessible? That affects the business case.” The tool assumes cost socialization, Brand explains, meaning investments are distributed among all users of the hydrogen hub, as is common with utility infrastructure.
Not black-and-white, but insightful
One lesson from developing the Quick Scan was that a simple yes-or-no outcome is not feasible. Brand: “You quickly realize that a black-and-white answer is very difficult. There are so many dependencies, questions, and assumptions. It has really become a tool that clarifies the consequences of certain choices.” Electricity price is by far the largest cost component of hydrogen, but grid costs also play a significant role. “Local generation within the energy hub as input for the electrolyzer? That can partly avoid grid costs and improve the business case.”
The tool also shows what happens when you adjust parameters. Do you want to replace fifty or one hundred percent of natural gas? What does it mean if you utilize more residual heat? How does the financial outcome change when subsidies are included? According to Ravotti, this flexibility is valuable in practice: “We conducted workshops with four energy hubs. Some of those parties had been calculating for months and reached the same results as the Quick Scan. The tool makes it very easy to quickly explore different scenarios: with subsidies x, we could achieve y.”
The four hubs used to test the tool illustrate the diversity of initiatives in the Netherlands. In Deventer, the GROWH project works with a 2.5-megawatt electrolyzer serving multiple industrial users, supplemented by residual heat and oxygen use. In Hoogeveen, a combination is being explored of a district heating network, two industrial users, and a hydrogen refueling station. In Bolsward, there are plans for a much larger installation of 20 to 25 megawatts, including mobility and a purification facility. And in Sliedrecht, a hub is under development where an approximately 8-megawatt electrolyzer is linked to a local solar park.
The business case remains challenging
Honesty about economic reality is a recurring theme in discussions with all three parties. Burning natural gas is still cheaper than green hydrogen. That makes every business case challenging. Brand from Essent: “Natural gas is still relatively cheap. Everything is built around it: infrastructure, installations, regulations. Subsidy schemes will not fully bridge the gap with natural gas. The Quick Scan helps clarify what the business case looks like and what cost picture you are facing.”
That said, there are situations where hydrogen is the most logical choice. Bolsman from RVO: “For high temperatures, it makes sense to use hydrogen. But for low temperatures, for example in the food industry, a heat pump or full electrification is more logical. Unless the waiting time for a grid connection runs until 2033—then hydrogen suddenly becomes an option.” The tool calculates hydrogen scenarios by default but also forces users to consider alternatives: electrification, hybrid solutions, or connecting to a neighbor’s installation with a large grid connection.
RVO is also working on supporting policy to lower barriers. Safety guidelines already exist, and together with the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, work is underway on guidance for permitting authorities and a dedicated subsidy option within the OWE scheme specifically for energy hubs. Küçük emphasizes that this context is essential. “We are trying to remove barriers step by step. The Quick Scan fits into this as a first step: a quick exploration without major investment.”
Potential for dozens of hydrogen hubs
The developers’ ambitions go beyond the current thirty to thirty-five initiatives identified by RVO. Homan outlines the potential: “We believe there are at least forty to fifty hubs where we can truly make a difference. If we can help realize ten to fifteen of them with this tool, we will have done our job well.”
There are more locations where hydrogen could play a role, especially as grid congestion increasingly forces companies to think outside the box. A next step could be a tool linked to a hydrogen opportunity map: a geographic overview of locations where hydrogen offers opportunities alongside solar and wind energy. Ravotti also looks beyond the Netherlands: “The financial data is currently tailored to the Dutch market, but the tool could also be adapted for other countries and regions.”
What is needed in the coming years is not only technology and subsidies, but also patience and collaboration. Bolsman highlights a factor that often makes the difference in practice: “You can only make an energy hub successful as a group. Involving your stakeholders early - such as governments, grid operators, and customers - really makes the difference.” The Quick Scan is a means, not an end. It provides the language and numbers that allow stakeholders to start the conversation. And sometimes, that is enough to move an initiative from the longlist to the drawing board.
The Quick Scan Hydrogen Hub is available free of charge via quickscanwaterstofhub.nl. The tool was developed by Impact Hydrogen on behalf of RVO, funded by TKI New Gas, with technical expertise from Essent.
